The following was extracted from:

                           Doctors for
                           Integrity in
                           Research & 
                           Public Policy

                       Edgar A. Suter, MD, Chair
                       5201 Norris Canyon Road
                       Suite 140
                       San Ramon, CA  94583

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THE "43 TIMES" FALLACY

We have all head that "a gunowner is 43 times more likely to 
kill  a family member than intruder."  How did this  fallacy 
start?   In  a 1985 article in the New  England  Journal  of 
Medicine,  Drs. Kellerman and Reay described the proper  way 
to  calculate how many people are saved by guns compared  to 
how many are hurt by guns.  The benefits should include,  in 
the authors' own words, "cases in which burglars or  intrud-
ers are wounded or frightened away by the use or display  of 
a  firearm [and] cases in which would-be intruders may  have 
purposely avoided a house known to be armed..."

However,  when Kellerman and Reay calculated their  compari-
son, they did NOT include those cases, they only counted the 
times a homeowner KILLED the criminal.  Because only 0.1% (1 
in a 1,000) of defensive gun usage involves the death of the 
criminal,  KELLERMAN  AND REAY  UNDERSTATED  THE  PROTECTIVE 
BENEFITS OF FIREARMS BY A FACTOR OF 1,000!  They turned  the 
truth  on its head!  Why?  Kellerman  emotionally  confessed 
his anti-gun prejudice at the 1993 HELP Conference.

Honest analysis, even by Kellerman and Reay's own standards, 
shows the "43 times" comparison to be superficially  appeal-
ing, but actually a deceitful contrivance - unfortunately, a 
lie  that  is parroted by  the  well-funded  gun-prohibition 
lobby and by gullible and biased journalists.

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  And this came from:

                Downloaded from GUN-TALK (703-934-2121)
                A service of the
                National Rifle Association
                Institute for Legislative Action
                Fairfax, VA 22030

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   Anti-gunners cite "studies" they claim show that firearms kept
at home are "43 times more likely" to be used to kill family
members than be used for self-defense.  (Other "studies" claim
different ratios.)  The 43:1 claim, based upon a small-scale study
of Kings County (Seattle) and Shelby County (Memphis), is a fraud,
because it counts as self-defense gun uses only those cases in
which criminals were killed in the defender's home.  Approximately
99.9% of all defensive gun uses are not fatal shootings, however --
criminals are usually frightened off, held at bay, or non-fatally
wounded.  Also, many defensive firearms uses occur away from home.
Further, suicides were counted as "family member killings" in the
"study," elevating that number more than 500%.  Unfortunately, some
of these "studies" are funded with taxpayer dollars, through grants
from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a division of
the U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services.

                Downloaded from GUN-TALK (703-934-2121)
                A service of the
                National Rifle Association
                Institute for Legislative Action
                Fairfax, VA 22030

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